But they warn that, if that fails, Iran is on a collision course with the west. European powers that opposed Trump’s maximum pressure during his first term have become more angry with Iran’s behaviour, including the continued expansion of its nuclear activity, its arms sales to Russia and its alleged targeting of citizens in the west.

Iran holds tremendous sway inside Iraq despite the presence of US troops, setting up a tug-of-war for the incoming Trump administration.

Iran is closely watching how the new Trump administration may handle Iran policy. While Iran may have expected a “maximum pressure” campaign from Washington to return, the way it had existed during the first administration.