Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Vice President Kamala Harris launched her run for president just 107 days before Election Day, so she’s had to cram a lot of campaigning into the last few weeks. This includes reintroducing herself as ...

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Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In ...

Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this ...

Who’s Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages.